Rishi Sunak’s Leadership Amid Local Elections
Rishi Sunak’s allies are growing increasingly hopeful that the Prime Minister will manage to avoid any serious threat to his leadership in the wake of next week’s local elections, which are predicted to be bruising for the Conservatives.
Concerns in Westminster
Concern that a damaging set of results on 2 May would be enough to prompt Conservative MPs to force a vote of confidence in Sunak has been bubbling under in Westminster for weeks. Just over 50 Tory MPs would need to send letters to Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee of Conservative Backbench MPs, in order to trigger a vote.
Growing Confidence
As polling day for the local and mayoral elections approaches, there is now a growing belief that Sunak’s position may remain safe after all. Senior Tories are particularly confident that Ben Houchen will manage to secure victory in the Tees Valley mayoral election, and that this will be enough to pacify restless Conservative MPs.
Key Contests
The fates of Houchen and Andy Street – the Conservative incumbent contesting the West Midlands mayoralty – are widely considered to be pivotal in how Conservative backbenchers react to the overall outcome of the local elections.
- Tory insiders believe Street is “neck and neck” with Labour candidate Richard Parker in the West Midlands ahead of 2 May.
- A Redfield & Wilton opinion poll published on Thursday put Parker six per cent ahead of Street, by 43 per cent to 37 per cent.
Stability and Speculation
No 10 hopes that Tory backbenchers’ positive reaction to recent events will help shore up the Prime Minister’s position in the event of a gloomy set of local election results. However, speculation about the timing of a general election continues, with polls suggesting a tough challenge for the Conservatives against Labour.
Future Elections
Publicly, Sunak continues to insist his “working assumption” is that he will hold the election in the “second half” of 2024.