Challenges Ahead for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak
Not long ago the thought of Tory mayor of the Tees Valley Ben Houchen being voted out was pretty much unthinkable. That the possibility of it happening next month is even worrying Conservatives suggests the local elections really could spell serious trouble for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
Potential Confidence Vote
Questions over whether Sunak could face a confidence vote following the 2 May local elections have once again been muttered around Westminster while Parliament remains dormant during the three-week Easter recess.
Growing Concerns
Currently, only a small gang of Tory rebels are engaged in an ongoing campaign to oust the Prime Minister, while the vast majority of Conservative MPs believe another change of leadership would be detrimental.
Local Election Impact
There is a growing belief that mass defeats next month would sharpen the minds of more moderate MPs and bolster the rebels’ numbers. The fate of Houchen in particular on 2 May could prove especially explosive.
Labour’s Strategy
Labour is keen to capitalize on the reverse in the Tories’ fortunes and sees Tees Valley as a high-value target. Winning in the Tees Valley is an important part of Labour’s general election strategy.
Challenges for Houchen
There is also suspicion that some of the briefings about Tory fear for Houchen are an exercise in expectation management that will boost a victory narrative if he does keep his seat as mayor.
Hope for Change
Allies of Houchen hope that the tangible change he has brought to the Tees Valley in the form of investment and jobs will be enough to get him over the line.
Implications
If Houchen does lose on 2 May, then Conservative MPs will be more inclined to believe the most ominous projections about what awaits them come the general election. Sunak will likely be watching for the Tees Valley result especially nervously.