South West Political Landscape
The South West is gearing up for a tight “three-way contest” between Labour, Liberal Democrats, and the Conservatives at the next general election, as both opposition parties seek to oust incumbent Tories.
Current Political Scenario
Several pollsters have predicted that the region could become a “patchwork” of Tory blue, Labour red, and Lib Dem yellow seats after the election, creating a “very different” picture to that of current Tory dominance.
- The Conservatives won 48 of the 55 seats available in the 2019 general election.
- Labour won a by-election in Kingswood in February.
- The Lib Dems won by-elections in Tiverton and Honiton and Somerton and Frome.
Predictions and Expectations
With national polling showing a significant steer away from Conservative voting intention, it is widely expected that the by-election losses won’t be the last seats the Tories lose in the region.
- Labour is set to gain 14 seats from the Conservatives across the South West at the general election.
- The Liberal Democrats are set to gain 13 seats from the Tories.
Party Strategies
The Liberal Democrats have won two by-elections in the South-West in the last two years and believe they could be set for a local “resurgence” after suffering a wipe-out in the region at the 2015 general election.
- The party aims to capitalize on successes in local elections as a “springboard” for the general election.
- YouGov MRP poll indicates potential wins for the Lib Dems in various seats across the region.
Challenges and Opportunities
While issues like post-Brexit subsidies are important in rural seats, parties are also focusing on urban issues like housing, transport, and health services to appeal to voters.
- Reform UK party could influence electoral outcomes by eating into Conservative vote share.
- Labour and the Lib Dems are competitive in various constituencies, with potential wins predicted in different areas.
Conclusion
The outcome of the next election in the South West will be crucial in determining the overall political landscape in the UK.