Global Shift in Gasoline Demand
The trajectory of global petrol demand is set for a major deceleration in 2024, with analysts predicting a significant slowdown compared to previous years. This shift is primarily attributed to the increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in major markets such as China and the US, alongside a return to pre-pandemic consumption levels following last year’s bounceback.
Factors Influencing Gasoline Demand
- Increasing adoption of electric vehicles in major markets
- Return to pre-pandemic consumption levels
- Forecasts for lower growth in petrol demand
Electric Vehicles Impacting Gasoline Demand
Consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie forecasts the lowest growth in gasoline demand since 2020, with a shift towards EVs shaping demand dynamics, particularly in the US and China. The penetration of electric vehicles in these markets is influencing gasoline demand, with China expected to see minimal growth this year due to higher EV uptake.
Global Gasoline Demand Projections
Consultancy Rystad Energy projects global gasoline demand to slightly increase in 2024, supported by the post-pandemic consumption surge. This growth signifies a changing landscape where EVs are becoming more prominent, with China transitioning towards electric vehicles.
Regional Gasoline Demand Trends
While China and the US lead the shift towards EVs, regions like India and Indonesia are experiencing strong gasoline demand due to booming car sales amid low EV penetration. India, in particular, is set to achieve a record in petrol consumption, with significant growth expected in the coming fiscal year.
Challenges and Opportunities in Gasoline Markets
Despite the changing demand patterns and geopolitical uncertainties, gasoline margins have shown resilience in certain markets. While the US and Asia experience an increase in gasoline margins, Europe faces challenges such as competition from new refineries and geopolitical tensions affecting refining margins.
