Analysis of the 2024 US Presidential Elections by Allan Lichtman
Allan Lichtman, known as the “Nostradamus of US presidential elections,” has shared his insights on the upcoming 2024 US Presidential elections. Lichtman, a history professor at the American University in Washington, has gained fame for his accurate predictions using the “13 Keys to the White House” method.
Insights from Allan Lichtman
According to Lichtman, the current scenario favors incumbent President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump. Lichtman’s method, which has correctly predicted election outcomes since 1984, indicates that Biden has an advantage with just two keys separating him from a potential victory.
While recent polls show Biden trailing behind Trump, Lichtman emphasizes that it is premature to determine the final outcome of the 2024 campaign.
The ’13 Keys to the White House’
Here are the 13 keys that Lichtman uses to forecast election results:
- Party mandate: The incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives after the midterm elections.
- Contest: There is no serious competition for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the current president.
- Third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth meets or exceeds the mean growth of the previous two terms.
- Policy change: The incumbent administration implements major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest: There is no prolonged social unrest during the term.
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is free from major scandals.
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration does not face significant failures in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a notable success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate possesses charisma or is a national hero.
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate lacks charisma or national hero status.
